May 29, 2013 

“2013 Texas Economic Outlook:

Slightly Slower but Still Good to Be in Texas”

Keith Phillips

Economic Policy Advisor

and Senior Economist

San Antonio Branch

Federal Reserve Bank of Bank

Keith Phillips joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in January 1984. His areas of concentration include regional economics and economic forecasting. Phillips developed business-cycle indexes for Texas and its major metro areas, which he uses to analyze business conditions in those regions. He is a contributing member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecasting Group, where he has been the most accurate Texas forecaster for eight out of the past thirteen years. His research and analysis have been covered in media such as CNN, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, USA Today, Business Week, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, MSNBC and in media throughout Texas. 

In August 1996, Phillips was transferred to the San Antonio branch in an effort to improve the regional economic coverage of the Dallas office and to better serve the needs of the South Texas community. He teaches courses in econometrics and forecasting at Trinity, Incarnate Word and St. Mary’s universities. He also teaches courses in managerial economics in the executive MBA program at UTSA. He obtained his PhD in economics from Southern Methodist University and holds a BA and MA in economics and a bachelor of journalism degree in news/editorial from the University of Missouri at Columbia.

Experience

• Senior Economic Policy Advisor, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Senior Economist, Economist: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, San Antonio Branch, August 1989–present.
• Assistant Economist, Associate Economist: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, May 1987–July 1989
• Economic Analyst: Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, January 1984–April 1987
• Adjunct Professor: Trinity, Incarnate Word and St. Mary’s Universities and the Executive MBA program at UTSA, San Antonio, TX, Fall 2000–present.
• Chartered Financial Analyst program in association with Brookhaven College, Fall 1985
• Graduate Teaching Assistant: Economics Department, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, January 1983–January 1984

Education

• PhD in Economics, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, December, 2003
• MA, University of Missouri, Columbia MO, December 1983
• Bachelor of Journalism, University of Missouri School of Journalism, Columbia, MO, December 1981
• BA,University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, December 1981

Selected Papers

• “A New Monthly Index of the Texas Business Cycle,” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 30, Number 4, 2005.
• “Dallas Fed Introduces Business Cycle Indexes for Texas Metros,” Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, May/June 2005.
• “Business Cycle Coordination Along the Texas-Mexico Border,” with Jesus Cañas, Working Paper 0502, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, July 2004.
• “Transportation Infrastructure and the Border Economy,” with Carlos Manzaneres, in The Border Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, June, 2001.
• “Measuring Regional Cost of Living,” with Jahyeong Koo and Fiona Sigalla, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, January 2000.
• “The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: A Comparison of Approaches,” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 25, Numbers 3,4, 1998/1999.
• "New Tools for Analyzing the Mexican Economy: Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," with Lucinda Vargas and Victor Zarnowitz, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review , Second Quarter 1996.
• "A New Quarterly Output Measure for Texas," with Franklin D. Berger, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Third Quarter 1995.
• "The Texas Construction Sector: The Tail That Wagged the Dog," with D'Ann Petersen and Mine Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1994.
• "Solving the Mystery of the Disappearing January Blip in State Employment Data," with Franklin D. Berger, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1994.
• "Regional Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators," in Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, by Michael P. Niemira and Philip A. Klein, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1994.
• "Regional Wage Divergence and National Wage Inequality," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1992.
• "The Effect of the Growing Service Sector on Wages in Texas," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, November 1991.
• "U.S. Oil Demand and Conservation," with Stephen P. A. Brown, Contemporary Policy Issues, January 1991.
• "Unionization and Unemployment Rates: A Reexamination of Olson's Labor Cartelization Hypothesis," with William C. Gruben, Review of Regional Studies, Winter, 1990.
• "The Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators: A Revision and Further Evaluation," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, July 1990.
• "Successes, Failures, and Issues in Developing Indicators of State and Local Business Conditions," Readings in Business and Economic Research, proceedings of the 43rd Conference of the Association for University Business and Economic Research, January 1990.
• "Diversifying Texas: Recent History and Prospects," with William C. Gruben, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, July 1989.
• "Oil Demand and Prices in the 1990s," with Stephen P. A. Brown, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, January 1989.
• "New Tools for Analyzing the Texas Economy: Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, July 1988.
• "Understanding the Texas Unemployment Rate," with William C. Gruben, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, November 1986.
• "Exchange Rates and World Oil Prices," with Stephen P. A. Brown, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, March 1986.
• "The Effects of Oil Prices and Exchange Rates on World Oil Consumption," with Stephen P. A. Brown, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, July 1984.

Noted Achievements

• Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast - Most accurate job growth forecaster for Texas for 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004.
• Created, with Frank Berger, a two-step seasonal adjustment process that subsequently was used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to seasonally adjust the employment data for all 50 states.
• Interviewed on the “The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer” and CNN.
• Often quoted in national and regional media.

Community Positions

• Member, Finance San Antonio Committee, City of San Antonio, 2005–06
• Chairman, Economic Analysis Panel, The Greater San Antonio Chamber of Commerce, 1999.
• President, San Antonio Business and Economics Society, September 1999–August 2001.
• Board Member, San Antonio Business and Economics Society, September 2001–present.
• Panel Member, Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast

Upcoming Programs

June 5

“My First 120 Days as the Sheriff of Bexar County”

Susan Pamerleau

Bexar County Sheriff

June 12

“Legislative Update”

Representative Ruth Jones McClendon

June 19

“World War II Veterans Tell Their Stories”

Panel Discussion

Upcoming Events

Family Night – Save the Date!

Friday, June 14

President Brian invites everyone to join him at Steaknite @ the Waring General Store for an evening of fun and fellowship!  Learn more and sign up

President Brian’s Family Night will be held on Friday, June 14 with a special Friday edition of the famous Steaknite at Waring General Store.  Steaknite has been a Wednesday night tradition in Waring since 1998.  If you’ve never attended, this is your chance to experience a real treat.

Steaknite includes cooked-to-order steaks, awarding winning grilled chicken breast, unlimited handmade appetizers and homemade desserts. Eat indoors or sit outside and enjoy live music.  There is an area for kids to run and play. Kids 9 and under can enjoy hot dogs and all appetizers for free!

Event Details:

Steaknite @ Waring General Store

544 Waring-Welfare Road, Waring (map)

Starting at 6:30 PM

Cost:  $25 (10 yrs and older)

Free:  children 9 and under

Learn more and sign up:  Family Night

Pay Your Outstanding Invoices Online

The Rotary year ends June 30, 2013.  If you have any outstanding invoices we ask that you send your payment before June 30.  For your convenience, invoices can be paid anytime online: Pay Online

If you’ve been meaning to donate to our Club’s Foundation or to Rotary International Foundation, now’s the time to submit your donation.  Contact the Rotary office at 222-8242, x11 or email assistant@rotarysa.org

It’s also time to select your committee for next year.   Rotary’s motto is “Service Above Self” – find your passion and get engaged.  If you need help choosing a committee, contact the Rotary office.  Download a committee slection form:  2013-14 Committee

On recommendation of the Admissions Committee, the Board of Directors has authorized the following for publishing for membership in accordance with the club bylaws.  The candidate will automatically become member in 7 days unless ten (10) written and signed objections are submitted.

Brigitta Glick

Provenir, LLC

President/CEO

HUMAN RESOURCES: Consulting

Proposer: Bonnie Munroe

Endorser: Brian Strange